EGYPT’s politics have been transformed since Hosni Mubarak was toppled on Feb. 11 but the prospect of elections may put remnants of his ruling party and an established Islamist group in the driving seat for now.
Torn between the desire for stability and a full purge of the system which could extend turmoil that has cost the economy billions of dollars, many Egyptians have opted for the former. That was what a referendum held on March 19 suggested when 77 percent of the voters backed constitutional amendments drawn up by a committee appointed by Egypt’s ruling military council. More radical reformers, including youth groups who led the uprising that erupted on Jan. 25, wanted a ‘No’ vote and an entirely new constitution. For them, the revolution is still incomplete.
But the mere fact Egyptians took part in a vote in which the result was not a foregone conclusion before polling stations opened is testimony to Egypt’s transformation from the 30 years of Mubarak’s rigged voting and corruption.
“There is no doubt there have been major developments like changes in the constitution, a new law for political parties, freedom of expression has been granted but still more needs to be done,” said political scientist Mustapha Al-Sayyid.
“The outcome of the revolution will appear after elections. We will see if the people behind the revolution succeeded in reaching power to do what they want, or if it is remnants of the former regime, or if Islamists take power,” said Sayyid.
Youth groups and other protest movements which had drawn millions of Egyptians onto the streets, often using the Web and social media to mobilize, now have little time before a parliamentary election set for September to turn themselves into more formal political parties.
The Muslim Brotherhood, with a broad base despite decades of repression under Mubarak, is best placed to capitalize. Remnants of Mubarak’s old party network of notables in rural areas, local council officers and business executives are also well placed.
Seeking to assuage fears, the Brotherhood has said it will not seek a parliament majority this time or run for president.
“So far, the revolution is definitely incomplete. It has only accomplished 10 percent,” Sayyid Abu El Ela from the January 25 Youth Revolutionaries said. “Now the people have retreated and their will has switched to a revolution of reform, not of change. But the youth will continue to push for change,” he said.
How Egypt navigates the transition will have a wider impact. Tunisia’s revolt may have preceded the Egyptian protests and Libya may be grabbing headlines for the violence wrought, but developments in Cairo will reverberate more profoundly across the Middle East.
– Reuters __