Egypt’s military leadership is considering delaying parliamentary elections now planned for September to give election planners and new political parties more time to organize, say people close to Egypt’s ruling military council, a move that could benefit secular Egyptian politicians.
“It’s highly possible they will postpone elections from one to three months but not more than three months,” said Ret. General Ahmed Wahdan, a former member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that assumed authority over Egypt following the overthrow of the former regime in February. Gen. Wahdan, who spoke Monday, has regular unofficial conversations with council members.
A military official close to the council confirmed that the military was considering delaying elections.
The military’s deliberations come as secular-minded protesters prepare to demonstrate once again in downtown Cairo this Friday to demand that, among other requests, Egypt’s new constitution be written before parliamentary elections that secular groups fear will be dominated by Islamist political parties.
Egypt’s military council has made no formal announcement regarding a delay nor given any indication that it will consider allowing the constitution to be drafted before the parliamentary vote.
But if the council does postpone elections, Egypt could follow a path first set by Tunisia, whose government decided last month to push back its first parliamentary vote to Oct. 23 from July 24.
The experience of both countries shows how practical and logistical considerations needed to plan first-ever nationwide elections can become entangled with the ideological interests of rival political parties.
In Egypt’s case, new secular political parties and the youth-led protest movement have consistently pushed for delays in the election timetable. Many complain that a fast-track transition from military rule to democracy will privilege well-established Islamist parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that has maintained a powerful social presence since its founding 83 years ago.
Representatives for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood have spoken out strongly against the “constitution first” movement, which they see as a cynical gambit to diminish Islamists’ role in drafting the new constitution. But they’re not against delaying the elections—as long as they come before the constitution.
“We are ready for the elections now and if it is postponed we will be ready even more,” said Saad Al Katatni, the general secretary of Freedom and Justice, the Muslim Brotherhood’s party. “But if the constitution is first that would create a lot of problems for us.”
Mr. Al Katatni argued that the current timeline is consistent with the will of the Egyptian people, who voted in March for a set of temporary constitutional amendments that charges the incoming parliament with nominating members of a constitutional congress.Egypt’s interim prime minister Essam Sharaf was quoted last month in the state-run daily newspaper Al Ahram as supporting delayed elections that he said would “give the chance for a larger number of new political parties to develop.” But at a news conference in Abu Dhabi, on Monday, Mr. Sharaf assured reporters that the elections would be held as scheduled “in late September.”
For the military, the debate rests primarily on logistical rather than ideological or political concerns.
“They have made few actual preparations, and the legal and institutional limbo is alarming,” said Marc Lynch, an Egypt expert and a political science professor at George Washington University, in an email.
Egypt is still reeling from a security vacuum left by a popular revolution that ended in February, when besieged police left their posts throughout the country.
The newly appointed leadership in the Ministry of Interior pledged to reform the police, most of whom have since redeployed. But rioting between police and protesters in Cairo last week injured more than 1,000 people and indicated residual mistrust between security forces and the Egyptian public.
On Monday, hundreds of Egyptians attacked a courtroom in Cairo and rioted after the court released 10 policemen charged with killing protesters during Egypt’s uprising, reported the Associated Press. The policemen were charged with killing 17 people in the city of Suez during the 18-day uprising that ended on Feb. 11, the AP said.
Meanwhile, neither Egypt’s prime minister nor the high military council, which acts as interim head of state, have approved a law governing elections or describing Egypt’s future parliamentary system.
A proposal published by the cabinet last month that would create a mixed proportional and single-district parliamentary system was rejected by secular groups who say it will favor established political parties such as Islamists and members of the ousted former regime.
The interim leaders have also yet to make plans for election monitoring and oversight. Such tasks are historically handled by Egypt’s judiciary, but the nationwide referendum in March laid bare the lack of judges available to observe what will certainly be the largest elections in Egyptian history.
“The [council] seems to think that the successful referendum demonstrates that they can do an election, but I’m not sure that follows,” Mr. Lynch said.
Further complicating the election planning process is that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan falls in August this year. Day-long fasting will slow business to a crawl in the month proceeding the scheduled elections.
While practical concerns could lead to delays, the council will need to avoid appearing as though it is taking political sides, analysts noted.
The delays in Tunisia led to “very negative political results” such as “polarization, mistrust and political drift” as political parties accused the interim government of manipulating the voting system to political ends, Mr. Lynch said.
One method of avoiding such recriminations would be to begin the campaign process as scheduled in September and delay the actual vote.
“That might be a way to massage it so that they’re still keeping to the timetable and allowing time for practical machinery to be set up and also for the parties to organize and campaign,” said Elijah Zarwan, a political analyst for the International Crisis Group, a New York-based conflict-monitoring organization.