President Hosni Mubarak’s immediate resignation _ the key demand of protesters in the streets of Cairo _ would trigger snap presidential elections under the Egyptian constitution and could make political reform more difficult, experts say.
That’s one of the quandaries opposition groups face as they try to chart an uncertain path to democracy. The difficulties are compounded by a lack of trust between Egypt’s embattled rulers and the opposition groups they tried to silence for decades.
Sunday saw a tentative start toward transition, even as Mubarak insists he’ll stay in power until his term expires in September, when elections are scheduled.
Vice President Omar Suleiman, appointed by Mubarak shortly after the Jan. 25 outbreak of protests, agreed in a meeting with major opposition figures that a committee should propose constitutional reforms by the first week of March. This would include allowing more candidates to run for president and imposing term limits on the presidency.
Still, the path to free and fair elections is packed with obstacles, lawyers and constitutional experts say.
If Mubarak were to resign now, as many protesters demand, presidential elections would have to be held within 60 days, according to the existing constitution. The current electoral rules impose many restrictions on who could run, heavily favoring the old regime, and could not be changed during the run-up to the elections, legal experts said.
“What has been the core opposition demand, that Mubarak resign immediately, does not get them what they want,” said Nathan Brown, a political scientist at George Washington University. “They get rid of Mubarak personally, but it kicks into gear all sorts of constitutional procedures that would really complicate things enormously.”
The U.S. has been struggling to strike the right tone. On Saturday, Frank Wisner, a retired American diplomat involved in contacts with Mubarak, said the Egyptian leader’s role “remains utterly critical in the days ahead while we sort our way toward a future.”
However, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton later recalibrated, saying the U.S. is throwing its weight behind the nascent transition efforts in Cairo, including the outreach to opposition groups. “It takes time to think those through, to decide how one is going to proceed, who will emerge as leaders,” she said. “The principles are very clear. The operational details are very challenging.”
Even some of Mubarak’s harshest critics in Egypt say the autocratic ruler of 29 years may have to stay a little while longer, if only as a figurehead, to help set in motion some of the reforms.
“It’s complicated,” Hossam Bahgat, a prominent human rights lawyer, said of the transition. “It would have been much easier had we succeeded in bringing down the regime through this uprising.”
Under one of several proposals being floated, Mubarak would hand many of his powers to Suleiman, who would then negotiate with the opposition on constitutional reforms needed for ensuring fair elections.