Egypt’s path toward a new democratic government is on steroids. This is troubling because there might not be enough time before the November elections for there to be an adequate variety of choice for its large and rather complex population. The decrepit state of social outlets and civil services because of the damage done by the regime will not suddenly be resurrected, and there will be challenges of a nation coming out of a revolution. The enthusiasm flowing from a historic set of events has no doubt cultivated this rapid push toward democracy, but the lack of civil society and checks and balances prior to this triumph are not suddenly going to vanish or be remedied before the November elections.
Council of Foreign Relations resident Richard Haass said, “Speed can sometimes be the real enemy of democratization,” in which, “the time tables that have been laid out for constitutional and political change, the elections and so forth are so compressed that you’re not giving civil society a chance to develop.” It’s obvious now that the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups that might be even more conservative of them are better equipped for the upcoming elections given they were the only opposition that was mobilized during Hosni Mubarak’s reign. Even after all of this, there is still plenty to remain optimistic about.
The Muslim Brotherhood has signaled it only wants to play a role in the new government and that it will not seek to try to get one of its members elected to become the new prime minister. Despite its rigorous campaign to recruit new members, or as Nesrine Signore, a longtime faculty member from the American University of Cairo, said, “An effort to win over the poor communities with a blend of violent tactics and modest monetary donations along with framing this around the type of Islam that most has no stomach for.” The Muslim Brotherhood might have to back up its gestures with action if it wishes to play role in what Egyptians really want: jobs, better education, infrastructure and an end to the clashes between Christians and Muslims.
Hadya Attia, who works at British Council Cairo, considers herself a modern Muslim woman who sees this as an opportunity that she has been waiting for her entire life because she was simply tired of the corruption in her country and lack of much-needed investments in infrastructure. As she gave me a ride back to my residence in Zamalek, Cairo, a week prior to the revolution, she said the fundamental problem is that people who are in power here have ignored the problems that are holding Egypt back because they have been able to rule unchecked for so many years. I noticed so many Hadyas while I was there that I just don’t think they will settle for a government that is more concerned about instituting harsh evasive laws and not on jobs.
Suzanne Guerges, who raised three daughters in Alexandria, Egypt, and is one the many Copts who are not jumping to conclusions about the pace of the elections, said that a majority of Egyptians will not tolerate “an Egypt that will not allow for economic growth and religious freedom for all.”
If a new government comes into power and fails, and the next one fails, and possibly the next one, but then the next one gets it right, meaning instituting the necessary reforms that will bring economic growth etcetera, then there will be a larger Muslim middle class that is the key to defeating any extremism that might blossom in Egypt.
I would be shocked, while at same time ecstatic, if Egypt got it right the first time. The United States has to remain focused on providing Egypt whatever help it needs in instituting elections and providing aid, which is what the United States is best at doing.
Egypt has a long way to go, and yes, there will be major setbacks, but as long as its civil society begins to develop certain freedoms that were fought for in Mubarak’s ouster and they are not short-lived, then the anxiety that is out the there right now will eventually diminish.
Spencer Mullins,
First-Year Graduate Student, Middle Eastern Studies