When posters vaunting President Hosni Mubarak’s son as Egypt’s future leader appeared in Cairo’s poorer districts, it was only days before many were torn down or defaced with spraypaint. Supporters of Gamal might take heed. Approaching elections have stirred debate about whether 46-year-old Gamal will succeed and hinted at rifts in the establishment about whether he is up to the job. The poster campaign raised questions about whether he has the popularity or muscle to win over the military or secure other
levers of power.
The question of who rules next has created uncertainty for investors but not enough, for now, to outweigh the attractions of a market growing at more than 5 percent a year when the picture in other global markets is less bullish, economists say. “Gamal runs against the public mood,” said American University in Cairo political scientist Mustapha Al-Sayyed. “If the state of discontent continues … it would be very difficult for the security and armed forces to support him. They would like a candidate that c
ould maintain law and order.
It is not only in the military where he could run up against opposition should the president, 82, decide not to seek a sixth six-year term in a presidential vote next year. The ruling party seems divided, with an old guard wary of a new generation of the economic liberalisers and business executives behind the former investment banker Gamal. “There is a split in opinion in the political class in Cairo,” said a European diplomat. Another Western diplomat said: “I don’t see any evidence talking to those arou
nd him (President Mubarak) that they are clear in their minds about who succeeds him.
Virtual walls, a growing channel of opposition, are also plastered with appeals. Dozens of Facebook groups have emerged supporting Gamal, but an equal number of groups seek to block a family succession. “Under their rule, Egypt’s resources have been sucked dry… We have had enough of your accomplishments,” said one Facebook group titled “Gamal: you and your father are unwanted.
Threatening any family succession – which both Mubaraks deny is their plan – has been a campaign run by former UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who said he might run in 2011 if the constitution is changed to open the field. ElBaradei is unlikely to secure the changes but has shown there may be an alternative for Egypt, where many poor blame Gamal’s allies for policies they say only helped the rich. “It is unreasonable to tell people that no one in the country is suitable for this role except fo
r the president’s son,” said Hassan Abou Taleb of the state-funded Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
Investors are not yet fretting. Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief Turkey and Middle East economist Turker Hamazaoglu said Egypt’s resilient growth was a relative rarity in the world. Investors “do not have the luxury” of ignoring it because of a political scenario that may still be some way off. But a November parliament election and the 2011 presidential poll are still regular subjects for bank research notes. Gamal may still be the most common name tipped for the top job but other names are bandied abo
ut. Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, in his 70s, who is close to Mubarak and has a military background unlike Gamal, is the most commonly cited alternative.
Other possibilities include Defence Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, other military candidates or some senior politicians. Mubarak has no designated successor and has not appointed a vice president, the post he held prior to becoming president. But even determining where power lies or who are king makers is difficult in Egypt where the system was last tested 30 years ago when President Anwar Sadat was assassinated and Mubarak, who had a low political profile then, was thrust into office. Although the coun
try now holds multi-candidate elections for the presidency, analysts say odds are heavily stacked in favour of the ruling party pick. Officials say voting is free and fair.
When Mubarak took the helm, the military was by far the pre-eminent political force. But that was less than a decade after the October 1973 war with Israel and the Sinai was still only in the process of being returned under a 1979 peace deal. “A few years ago there was one power centre, the military,” said the European diplomat. Now it had to share at least some of that political space with others such as ruling party leaders and to consider the growing clout of business, he said. Officers will want any su
ccessor to guarantee privileges, such as well-paid sinecures to top staff on leaving the service.
Gamal’s fate may depend on whether Mubarak, whose health has been subject to frequent rumour since his gallbladder surgery in Germany in March, steps down or dies in office. Another diplomat said the military and others would likely end up backing Gamal or any other candidate Mubarak picked. “There may be folks all around who may think Gamal is not the strongest candidate … but that doesn’t mean they would be interested in blocking him,” the diplomat said.
While supporters’ posters declare “Gamal is the future”, the opposition April Sixth youth Movement, spraying X-marks over his face, thinks otherwise. “Spray painting is a means of expressing our refusal of the Gamal Mubarak campaign,” Ahmed Maher, a group leader said, complaining of harassment of their own campaigns. The party denies a role in the pro-Gamal campaign but some detect tacit approval because the state was quick to stamp out another campaign backing spy chief Suleiman. That campaign was pushed
by a group saying it wanted to block a family succession. – Reuters