Egypt has traditionally been a trendsetter in the Middle East. Although its leading regional role is not as important as it used to be, political change in Egypt could open the door to transformation across the Arab world.
And so it is with great interest that people throughout the region are watching which way the political wind blows in Cairo.
Is the Arab world’s most populous country on the brink of real change? The mood, at least among the elite and the politically aware, is that the country has entered an unprecedented period of uncertainty – and perhaps also opportunity.
For the first time in nearly 30 years, the ailing president Hosni Mubarak may not be able to stand in next September’s elections. No one is sure, however, who might succeed him. He has never named a vice-president nor identified a clear favourite.
His son Gamal is being promoted actively by the young guard in the ruling National Democratic party (and possibly more quietly by his father too), but whether he is agreeable to the old guard and to the military is far from clear.
Indeed, a recent insightful analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, entitled “Gamal Mubarak and the discord in Egypt’s ruling elite”, suggests an intensifying power struggle inside the ruling party. The paper argues that the younger Mr Mubarak’s political future is anything but assured.
The government’s take on the presidential election is that there is no need to worry – there is a system in Egypt and it will take care of the transition. That means that the party and the army, which is still the backbone of the regime, will find a suitable successor.
If not Gamal, then perhaps it will be Omar Suleiman, the intelligence chief and one of Mr Mubarak’s top aides. In either case, there will be no chaos. Egyptians should go about their business as if nothing is changing.
That is a reassuring message to world powers and foreign investors, for whom stability is paramount. The elderly Mr Mubarak is not exactly a reformer and would be leaving a country in which 40 per cent of the population remains poor. But he has been a reliable ally to the west – and at least he has shielded Egypt from military adventures.
There are Egyptians, however, who are not satisfied with the prospect of sitting back and watching the regime sort out the succession. Though they know their voices may ultimately matter little, some of them are working hard to exploit this period of uncertainty. They want to shake things up a little.
Thanks to a more open media, social networking sites and an opposition campaign led by Mohamed ElBaradei, a former Egyptian diplomat and ex-head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, activists have seized on the presidential election as a chance to express their grievances.
Taboos are being broken. Opposition to Gamal’s succession is widely voiced in the media and, the more the young wing of the NDP pushes for its favourite, the more vociferous the protest against an inherited succession.
Meanwhile, with help from the opposition Muslim Brotherhood, Mr ElBaradei’s movement has gathered more than 800,000 signatures, mostly online, for a petition demanding sweeping constitutional reforms. The petition calls for independent candidates to be allowed to stand in presidential elections and for limiting presidential terms.
Social discontent, too, is being more loudly expressed. Labour unrest, driven by demands for higher wages, is now frequent, and a new headache for the authorities.
All this activism reflects the collective frustration of disparate groups. It does not represent a mass movement, and possibly never will. But the presidential vote is still a year away, so there is plenty of opportunity for the opposition to try to make itself a factor in the decision-making over the succession.