Two of the biggest opposition players in Egyptian politics have joined forces as unofficial campaigning kicks off for parliamentary polls later this year—though neither will be on the ballot.
Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog and Egypt’s most prominent advocate for political change, has quietly joined forces with the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that is officially banned but tolerated here. In 2005, the Brotherhood, banned from running as a party, instead fielded a slew of independent candidates who captured 20% of the seats in parliament. Now Mr. ElBaradei, who has refused to join one of Egypt’s government-licensed parties, and the Brotherhood have teamed in a nationwide signature drive aimed at winning popular backing for constitutional change.
As the late November polls approach, 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak’s ruling National Democratic Party and supporters of Mr. Mubarak’s son and heir apparent, Gamal Mubarak, have stepped up their response, orchestrating an aggressive public-relations campaign aimed at consolidating their position.
The NDP has dominated Egyptian politics for decades, and the older Mr. Mubarak has ruled for 29 years. Complicating their calculus now is Mr. ElBaradei’s emergence on the political scene, after he stepped down in December 2009 as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The Nobel laureate returned to Egypt this year to a hero’s welcome, promising to campaign for political change. His organization, the National Association for Change, is pushing a seven-point list of demands, that includes repealing Egypt’s longstanding state of martial law and altering the constitution to eliminate obstacles to an independent presidential candidacy.
Mr. ElBaradei has said he may run for president against Mr. Mubarak in 2011 if changes to the electoral system are put in place. Such a candidacy remains a long shot, requiring changes to the constitution unlikely to happen before the 2011 vote.
The Brotherhood has quietly backed Mr. ElBaradei’s group from the beginning. In June, Brotherhood leaders said they would become more directly involved with his reform campaign. The Islamist organization says it has already gathered more than 500,000 signatures for a petition backing Mr. ElBaradei’s demands for a constitutional overhaul.
In an interview this summer with Jazeera Live, a sister satellite news channel to Al-Jazeera, Brotherhood Secretary-General Mahmoud Hussein said the two camps “share some sort of common ground … regarding political reform” and that the Brotherhood would work to “coordinate and collaborate” with Mr. ElBaradei’s campaign.
There are risks in the ElBaradei-Brotherhood union. Recent opposition efforts in Egypt to open the political system have foundered amid the longstanding ideological divide between the Islamist and secular camps.
Mr. ElBaradei’s reserved style has also raised questions about how hard he would campaign in any real candidacy—and could limit any boost the Brotherhood may get from associating with him. Senior ElBaradei deputies have complained publicly that he travels overseas too frequently, and the bookish former diplomat has said repeatedly that he is uncomfortable cast in the role of Egypt’s political savior.
And Brotherhood leaders say they are still debating whether to boycott or participate in the parliamentary election. Mr. ElBaradei’s group has endorsed a boycott if its concerns aren’t addressed and if it can get more opposition parties to join.
Still, the potential threat from an ElBaradei-Brotherhood movement has triggered a stronger response from the NDP in recent weeks. NDP spokesman Ali Eddin Hillal, in remarks that appeared targeted at Mr. ElBaradei’s constitutional campaign, said in July that rewriting any country’s constitution based on the demands of one person or one small group would be “a mockery.”
Parliament Speaker Fathi Sorour, in an interview with state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram in July, charged that Egypt’s opposition knows “only how to destroy, not to build.” He didn’t mention Mr. ElBaradei by name.
“All the big guns are being brought onto the battlefield,” says Hassan Nafaa, the coordinator for Mr. ElBaradei’s group.
The issue of Mr. Mubarak’s health looms over the polls. The president had gall-bladder surgery in Germany this year, and rumors that his health is failing have dogged him since. Government representatives suggest that he won’t announce whether he will run for president until the spring.
In the meantime, posters have appeared around Cairo urging Gamal Mubarak to run for president next year. The group responsible, the Popular Coalition for the Support of Gamal Mubarak, says it has no formal connection to either Gamal Mubarak or the NDP.