Egypt’s former President Hosni Mubarak will become the first Arab head of state to face trial after being deposed by his own people, marking a pivotal moment in the revolutions that have swept across more than half a dozen nations since the start of the year.
Mr. Mubarak and his two sons, Alaa and Gamal, will face charges of “intentional murder, attempted murder of demonstrators, abuse of power to intentionally waste public funds and unlawfully profiting from public funds for them and for others,” Egypt’s attorney general said Tuesday.
If found guilty of murder charges, Mr. Mubarak could face the death penalty, said Nasser Amin, an Egyptian lawyer and member of the International Criminal Court.
The date for the trial hasn’t been announced. But the decision to try Mr. Mubarak, who ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years, raises the stakes for uprisings in Libya, Syria and Yemen.
For the U.S., the spectacle of a trial could prove embarrassing and will likely complicate its diplomatic efforts in the region. Mr. Mubarak was for decades one of America’s staunchest allies in the Arab world and a leading recipient of U.S. aid. Prosecution of an Arab leader who agreed to step down and hand over power is likely to undermine U.S. efforts to persuade other Arab leaders to give up power peacefully.
It could send a message to Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who the U.S. is trying to persuade to peacefully cede power, that he is better off clinging to office rather than face an uncertain fate outside of it, despite his negotiated immunity from prosecution.
A Mubarak prosecution could persuade other Arab leaders facing unrest and pro-democracy movements to follow the models of Arab leaders who have brutally crushed demonstrators and remain in power, such as Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi. It may particularly complicate efforts to nudge aside President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
“This is a very strong message for the other Arab leaders…the reaction for the other Arab leadership will be very strong against the people,” Mr. Amin said. “All the leaders in the Arab region won’t like to see themselves like Mubarak.”
Beyond that, Mr. Mubarak’s trial could add to anger among Persian Gulf allies, particularly in Saudi Arabia, for not doing more to protect a longtime friend.
The decision by Egypt’s current leaders to pursue charges also will feed concerns in Israel that trend lines in the post-Mubarak Egypt are moving away from moderation and toward extremism. Mr. Mubarak was a defender of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.
During Egypt’s revolution in February, a Western diplomat with access to Egypt’s military said the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces—which assumed power from Mr. Mubarak after he stepped down on Feb. 11—had reached a deal with Mr. Mubarak that he would be looked after in his retirement. The leader had declared of Egypt during the nearly three weeks of street protests in which hundreds were killed, “I will die on its land.”
It is unclear whether the supreme council’s agreement was meant to shelter Mr. Mubarak from legal accusations.
Mr. Mubarak remains in police custody in a hospital in the resort city of Sharm Al Sheikh following a heart attack last month. His lawyers issued no statement in response to the charges.
The attorney general’s decision to try Mr. Mubarak is unlikely to quell continuing protests at home in Egypt. The timing of the news struck many observers as a clear effort by Egypt’s new military chiefs to mollify youth leaders who, despite the trial, are planning a so-called second revolution protest again Friday against what many see as the military leadership’s slow movement toward full political reform.
The council has been seen as reluctant to prosecute Mr. Mubarak, a former air force officer.
Protest leaders complain that the former president and his sons were detained for questioning only last month, nearly three months after his abdication.
Tuesday’s decision may point to a cynical gambit by military leaders to prosecute their former commander-in-chief in order to preserve their own power and prestige among an increasingly frustrated public.
“It’s difficult to imagine that the prosecutor general would take such a significant step without first at least alerting” the supreme council, said Elijah Zarwan, a Cairo-based senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, an international nongovernmental organization that monitors conflicts world-wide.
A communiqué this week on the Supreme Council’s official Facebook page contained an opaque warning against provoking the Egyptian people against the military.
“Some foreign elements who pretend to be heroic and in the defense of this nation have been publishing a lot of false statements from their sick imaginations,” the statement read. “Those suspected elements are directing their outlaws’ followers…to penetrate the protesters and provoke the military and police forces to cause a security breakdown that causes clashes between both sides.”
Youth leaders said prosecuting Mr. Mubarak was only one demand among many. Protesters are planning to push a series of political and economic demands, including the imposition of a minimum wage, an end to military trials for protesters and greater freedom to criticize the military.
“It could reduce the enthusiasm and the numbers of people going to the protest,” said Mohammed Qassas, a youth member of the Muslim Brotherhood and a leader in the Revolutionary Youth Coalition, which has decided to participate in Friday’s march. “But I think that the protest is going to happen still.”
Mr. Qassas said the youth of the Brotherhood will participate in the demonstration along with other revolutionary organizations. The Brotherhood itself, however, will decide Wednesday in a meeting of its executive Guidance Bureau whether to call out its full numbers to Friday’s demonstration, said Essam El Erian, a leader and spokesman in the organization.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which was outlawed before the revolution, is Egypt’s most powerful Islamist political group. They have maintained a reliably cooperative attitude toward Egypt’s military leaders.
If they agree to participate in Friday’s protest, it would be a major blow to the military leadership’s public image.
The vast majority of Egyptians continue to hold the military in high regard.
A poll by the Pew Research Center found that 88% of Egyptians said the military had a “favorable influence” on the country and 90% had a favorable view of Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, head of the military council.