How does Egypt impact the rest of the world?

Presidential campaigns are in full swing in Egypt, where voting is scheduled by the end of May. It’s widely expected that the recently retired military chief, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, will sweep to a landslide victory over his sole (and many say nominal) challenger – thus keeping the Egyptian military firmly in control of the government.

That’s just where it’s been for decades, working quietly behind the scenes – throughout the Arab Spring and President Hosni Mubarak’s ouster, and even during the short-lived presidency of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi. On the surface, the forecast calls for much-needed stability in Egypt.

But even if there are no surprises at the ballot box, Egypt’s next president will have to walk a careful line, with little room to maneuver. In this country – the pivot of the Arab world – politics are not strictly local. The rest of the Middle East – and the world – will be watching the next steps in Egypt’s long journey with interest.

At Stratfor, one of the things we study is the “butterfly effect:” the ways that political, economic and security developments, which often start as small, almost imperceptible shifts, can grow and ripple outward – impacting people, companies and industries far from the initial event. Our analysts make it their business to track and write about the small but meaningful events around the world, focusing on motivations, constraints and implications for the future.

Gain a deeper understanding as we consider these important questions:
• What options will Egypt’s new president have to improve the country’s precarious financial situation? And how might the price of bread impact his longevity in office?
• How could politics in Cairo impact the global shipping industry, which routinely makes use of the strategic Suez Canal?
• How will Egypt, which is focused on its core as it struggles through the transition to democracy, ensure that the Sinai Peninsula does not become a safe haven for jihadists – and what will happen to the peace treaty with Israel if Cairo fails?
• How does Cairo’s approach to the Muslim Brotherhood make allies or enemies of neighboring states in North Africa and the Middle East?
• What might be the implications for Egypt’s future if a military-backed president can’t deliver on promises for the common good?
Learn more about Egypt’s “butterfly effect” and who is likely to be touched by it with a Stratfor subscription. Get one year of complete access at 63% off and get The Next 100 Years, by Stratfor founder and chairman George Friedman, for free.

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